Will Biden Restore Balance to US Foreign Policy?admin
Will Biden Restore Balance to US Foreign Policy?
After a state of anticipation and breathlessness, the American voter decided the fate of the forty-sixth president of the United States of America, this time for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, a veteran politician who set foot as the youngest senator in the Senate forty years ago. Will Biden be an extension of the foreign policy of his predecessor Barack Obama in many international and regional issues, or will he have new directions?
Obama’s most prominent foreign policy station was the nuclear agreement with Iran, which angered Arab Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, in addition to many regional and international issues that were controversial during his administration.
Yet, it is known that the American strategic thought, in general, is led by research centers specialized in security and strategic policy, which were considered the theoretical framework for American strategic thinking. During the Obama era, for example, the 2009 National Intelligence Strategy document and the Defense Review Document were issued in February 2010, during which time Biden was Vice President Barack Obama, which gives an indication that the political behavior of both Obama and Eden is close.
Will Biden put his political fingerprints as an elected president who has spent forty years of his life in politics on many issues, as many world capitals are waiting, and even building their policies on the rhythm, developments and variables of the White House and Washington DC, watching the transformations and who is America’s first man.
Among the most prominent files awaiting Biden is the Iranian nuclear file, which Biden will try to restore to him with what is known as the 5 + 1 group, through which he will try to prevent escalation and create a state of stability in the region by containing Iran, restricting its nuclear ambitions and limiting its influence in the region. The framework of very accurate calculations and reassurance of the strategic allies of America, led by Israel and Saudi Arabia, who consider the nuclear agreement a strategic and existential threat to them, as the geopolitical reality and the imbalance of power in the Arab Gulf region allowed Iran to extend through its arms in many countries, the most important of which are Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. It is certain that Biden will take a completely different approach to his Republican predecessor Trump in dealing with many issues, specifically the Iranian file, but the political calculations will be very sensitive and represented in maintaining the state of deterrence with Iran, and taking into account the fears of Israel and some Arab countries about the risk of Iran acquiring unconventional weapons. On the other hand, it is expected that the US-Saudi relationship will cool down if an agreement is reached with Iran on the nuclear file, as happened during the Obama administration. It is also expected that the Biden administration will open many hot files related to the Gulf and Arab region, such as the file of the journalist Khashoggi, political detainees, democracy, political Islam and the waving JASTA law, as well as pressure towards Gulf rapprochement, Biden’s expected priorities are to complete Gulf reconciliation within the framework of preserving the pillars of security and stability and preventing the use of force between the Gulf states. So, will this discrepancy and difference in understanding and attitudes in many issues between America and some Gulf and Arab countries be made public, or will it be dealt with in quiet diplomatic frameworks?
As for the Palestinian file, where the US-Palestinian relations deteriorated due to Trump’s unprecedented policy, which represented a complete and clear bias towards Israel, which was the transfer of the embassy to the city of Jerusalem, giving cover for the expansion and annexation of settlements in the West Bank, and stopping all forms of financial support for the Palestinians, whether directly to the Palestinian authority or to international institutions operating in its regions, and pressure on Arab countries to normalize with Israel, bypassing the Arab peace initiative, which prompted the authority to take decisions and measures to deal with America, as well as stop security coordination with Israel and move towards consensus and arranging the internal Palestinian house.
But with Biden’s democratic victory, the Palestinian Authority began to respond to the political changes imposed by the election results and reconsidered the normal contacts with America. Security coordination was restored and Palestinian reconciliation and consensus declined. Biden and his administration will encourage the Israeli and Palestinian sides to sit at the negotiating table and will strongly oppose reconciliation and consensus between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, rather not, it is unlikely that America will give Israel the green light to escalate towards Gaza in return for revitalizing the negotiation track and progressing on some non-essential files.
The new US Secretary of State, Anthony Lincoln, was a supporter of all the Israeli wars on Gaza. On the other hand, Biden and his administration did not take any new steps or measures that might provoke the Palestinian Authority. It is not expected that the authority will be established or be able to make any changes in the reality on the ground imposed on the ground during the Trump period, except within the framework of political objections and protests and the continuation of the meetings and negotiations between them, especially that everyone has come to realize that the important and main gateway to the continuation of normalization and the expansion of its states will be from the gateway and the Palestinian satisfaction represented in the Palestinian Authority and its satisfaction in return for increasing pressure on the Palestinian opposition forces represented by Hamas and Jihad, and pressure towards the failure of any path of internal Palestinian reconciliation.
t is expected that the American foreign policy in the current Biden period will turn towards Asian countries to contain China and work to strengthen the American presence in the China Sea, as well as to strengthen the European position against Russia which supports democracy in Eastern Europe. As well as America’s openness to the forces of political Islam in the Arab region. It is not excluded that the Biden administration will seek to retreat from its dependence on Gulf oil in favor of American shale oil, if this happens, the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, will lose a pressure card from their soft power cards.
Based on this, and according to these challenges and hot files that will face the administration of President Biden, US foreign policy will depend on merging the concepts of hard power and soft power, which is known as smart power.
Biden will face a challenge, which is to maintain America’s security, prestige and power without America being the policeman of the world and draining it, as well as not putting America in a state of isolation and withdrawal, especially in light of the instability in the structural state of the global system in the context of the rise and fall of countries, powers and global blocs.